Malaysian voters have backbone!
I'm now very, very curious as to who will take over the Chief Minister post for Perak. DAP chief has already taken the Penang CM post. PKR chief has already taken Selangor CM post. Kelantan and Kedah are under PAS. This leaves Perak.
DAP is the opposition party with the largest minority to form the Perak State government. Will we see for the first time in history a non-Malay as the CM of a Malay majority state (and one with a Malay Sultan to boot)? Interesting to see how that pans out now especially since after so many decades, the ceremonies and procedures between the CM and the State Royal houses have, because they've always been in Malay hands, become steeped in Islamic practices and rituals. Throwing a non-Malay CM into the works will now be interesting to see.
With Penang, Perak and Selangor, the three richest states in Malaysia and all next to each other in one continuous strip in opposition hands, gives the opposition for the first time in history a chance to really do something. They can't be isolated like Kelantan anymore. Add in Kedah and Kelantan sharing borders with Penang and Perak in the north creates even more interconnectivity between opposition states. These 5 states together have the resources, money and connectivity to practically go their own way without the need to beg the central government for funds everytime the want to do something, a bane of isolated opposition wards since time immemorial. Together, Penang, Perak and Selangor hold 50% of the population and 50% of the country's economy.
More significantly, the government has been denied their 2/3 majority. This means the ruling party now needs to debate policies and constitutional changes in parliament with the opposition parties. They can no longer change the constitution at will.
LJM ,do you votes yesterday ?are you in KL now?,DAP have win in my area Damansara Utama /PJ Utara finally ,i vote DAP in 1999 and 2004 but they lose to MCA ,even Sg Han was very happy ,he he ,the BN lose in Penang ,Selangor thank to Hindraff issue and Keris issue.
ReplyDeleteno I had to work yesterday but my wife went back to Ipoh to vote. Chua Mei Fun used to be very, very strong. My voting constituency is also PJ Utara and I voted last election which Ms. Chua won easily. We need to be careful of potential racial riots now. The country is split between northernwestern opposition states and southerneastern BN states.
ReplyDeletenobody will miss Samy Vellu
ReplyDeleteSigh! AB, you are right, there is always some hot heads that will come up with something that might cause trouble. It is still good news that at least, this becomes a huge wake up call for the BN, not to take the electorates for granted.
ReplyDeletehaha yes. He should have took his money and retired like Mahathir.
ReplyDeleteI'd like to see how DAP fares now. They've never formed a state government before, and now have to handle two of the richest states in Malaysia. Time to put their money where their mouths are and prove that they are not just hot air. Gerakan had their chance in Penang and its now obvious that Penangites feel they haven't been able to perform. Now's the DAP's turn to show what they can do.
ReplyDeletecheck out my journal, "Malaysia Decides"... .wud be interested in seeing ur comments... .
ReplyDeleteNorthernwestern oppostion states and southern BN states just like China in 907-1279 AD when northern china was control by Liao, Jin, Western Xia against Sung from southern China ,Pas is Liao ,Jin is DAP and Western Xia was Keadilian against Sung from BN ,maybe next 50 years Malaysia will get conquer from Mongol from Singapore ,he he .rebel always come from north according to feng su.
ReplyDeleteMalaysia shall become Singapore khanates in next 50 years ,sure?
ReplyDeleteThe key now is that the 3 opposition parties have to work together, especially in Perak and Selangor. In Penang, DAP has the majority and can form the state government by themselves. Same thing in Kelantan and Kedah with PAS. But in the other two opposition states, the opposition parties need to form coalition state governments.
ReplyDeleteIn Selangor, only either PKR+DAP+PAS or PKR+DAP or PKR+PAS or PAS+DAP combination will have sufficient combined seats. Alone BN holds the major share of the seats.
Perak is even worse. Only a PAS+DAP+PKR coalition will have enough seats to beat the BN number.
We know PAS+DAP coalitions are very unlikely and PAS-DAP-PKR coalitions will depend on the PKR mediating so of the two states, Perak will be on the edge.
The opposition parties need to work together beyond the election agreement.
the real story will be:
ReplyDeletecan the BN parties sustain their "relationship"?
i think that will be interesting to watch... .
there will be massive squabbles and finger pointing there..
Expect defections and crossovers over the coming months. Some from PAS, DAP and PKR can cross over to BN. Only time will tell if the Selangor and Perak state governments will be stable. Because the Chief Ministership in Selangor goes to PKR, PKR defections in Selangor are less likely.
ReplyDeletePerak on the other hand, sees DAP as the major minority party. If DAP places a Chinese as CM (and Lim Kit Siang is the obvious candidate), defections to BN by PAS and more so by PKR become likely, just so BN gets the majority and can then put back a Malay CM in Perak. Racial politics might put Perak back into the BN camp. Then like I said in my earlier post, what would the Perak Sultan say when faced with the need to deal with a non-muslim/malay Chief Minister who will probably not be able to follow all the adat and traditional rituals (which have over time become islamised) associated with the CM role in dealing with the Malay royalty?
Of the two states, Selangor will probably be more stable than Perak.
LJM ,if Anwar return to UMNO ,PKR and Pas could join BN again ,then we are in real crisis.
ReplyDeleteYeah, the fall out will be interesting. MIC and Gerakan are practically wiped out. Their top people are all out. Only MCA still has enough seats to remain credible as a party, but only barely.
ReplyDeletePAS not likely (a few single seats may cross over but not the majority).
ReplyDeletePKR on the other hand, hard to say. Many of the wins by PKR are in the seats where the PKR fielded non-malays (in the mixed constituencies). These should hold and not cross to BN but the PKR Malay seats are another question. They could be a repeat of Semangat '46 and see a mass cross over to UMNO when either a deal is struck, or the Malays suddenly see a serious threat to their Special Rights. If this happens, Selangor and Perak will fall back to BN, and more significantly, BN may get back their 2/3 majority. PKR is now the leader of the Opposition in Parliament because of their 31 seats. DAP trails with only 28 seats. PAS with 23 seats will probably not move, happy to consolidate their gains, feeling vindicated that they won the debate with BN over voter's hearts. What this means for the non-muslim population remains to be seen however.
If even 1/3 of PKR seats defect to BN, we are back to square one. BN only needs less than 10 seats to regain 2/3 majority.
What is also interesting is that almost all cities fall to the Opposition. KL 10 out of 11 parliment seats are in Opposition hands. BN controlled Negri Sembilan loses their capital Seremban to DAP. Sarawak BN stronghold sees capital Kuching held by DAP. Kota Melaka in BN Melaka is also under DAP. In tentatively held Perak, Ipoh the state capital is a DAP stronghold and the major town of Taiping, formerly a BN stronghold is now under DAP. In BN stronghold of Sabah with three state seats for the capital of Kota Kinabalu, two of them had three way fights with the opposition DAP and PKR votes polled more than BN's when combined, with the third seat seeing BN win with a mere 174vote majority. The DAP took the Kota Kinabalu Parlimentary seat winning a 4 way fight between the DAP, BN, PKR and an Independant.
ReplyDeleteBN won mainly due to the rural votes meaning the popular vote is with the opposition since the density of consituencies are much higher in the cities.
malaysiakini "disappeared" three hours ago, offline... .
ReplyDeleteit went down lastnight as well. Probably too many people going on to read causing the crash. I was switching between many of the websites to check results lastnight, switching whenever one went down.
ReplyDeleteTry these;
www.malaysia-today.net
www.malaysiatoday.com
www.malaysiakini.com
pru12.spr.gov.my/spr
www.nst.com.my/Election08
Oh brilliant move. "Perak coalition Govt nominates Pas representative as Menteri Besar" - BERNAMA
ReplyDeleteThis places a Malay as CM in Perak. PAS is the smallest minority in the opposition coalition state government but the only one with the experience in running a state government. Larger minority party DAP not taking the CM post is probably smart in the long run. PKR seats will be less likely to defect to BN now and and of the two, PAS is probably more stable than PKR (ie. less likely to defect).
Everyone wins. DAP has majority in the coalition, PAS the smallest takes the CM and PKR plays middle man. So in this way opposition retains control of Perak, ensuring Malay support with the PAS CM role.
Giving PAS the CM post in Perak should also help integrate the two PAS held state governments of Kedah and Kelantan into the much richer west coast states, solidifying opposition control over the entire northwest. BN Perlis will now be isolated.
ReplyDeleteTogether, these northwestern states hold 3 of Malaysia's 5 main ports, Langkawi in Kedah, Penang and WestPort in Selangor. They hold the financial hub of Kuala Lumpur and the resource rich Perak and span coast to coast across the Malaysian peninsula through Kelantan. 50% of the wealth and 50% of the population lay within the 3 states of Penang, Perak and Selangor, including the capital city of PutraJaya and the former capital of Kuala Lumpur. They hold 3 of 4 declared Cities (and former Cities), and the northern high tech industrial region centered around northern Perak and Penang. They also hold the rice bowl of Malaysia in Kedah, control all major land trade routes into Thailand, as well as a significant amount of off shore oil fields in Kelantan.
Previously, the BN could isolate the opposition and withhold funds to opposition wards to "punish" the voters. They can hardly do that now. Improvishing the entire northwest is not an option for the Malaysian government.
This could also see a shift in government attentions to the southeast (Johor and Pahang) as well as greater emphasis on Sarawak and Sabah who helped BN stay alive. Without Sabah and Sarawak, BN would have failed to form the government.
now what is most feared is racial rioting. Despite claims to the contrary, some sectors of the population are not entirely civilised, the sheen of culture only skin deep, still capable of bringing their short stabbing swords to kiss at political gatherings and declaring on in front of the media their intention to wash their swords in the blood of their opponents.
ReplyDeleteWe may see a backlash and closing of ranks amongst the Malays who perhaps suddenly realise the implications of this and their continued enjoyment of their Special Rights. The ultra religious PAS also remains a concern for moderate Malays and non-Malays in the west coast.
check out my new album, u may like it... .
ReplyDeleteThe Malaysian Election Album
Where? Couldn't find it. Besides, I think I like your "Undecently Dressed Ladies" album better. :P
ReplyDeletei like it too... .
ReplyDeletenew album just posted has the election "story"
Badawi's power base has been seriously eroded, so has that of the Mahathir gang. The only one that has survived intact is Najib in Pahang. So Malaysian orchestrated history repeats itself. Razak with the Tengku, Mahathir with Hussein Onn, and now Razak with Badawi?
ReplyDeleteThe true implications and ramifications of this shift in Malaysian politics will become apparent over the course of the next few months.
ReplyDelete1. Anwar remains a concern. Can the non-Malays trust him? The concept of "Ketuanan Melayu" and its mass implementation into the Malay-dominated Public Sector through the Education Ministry remains his handiwork.
2. PAS might have toned down their Islamic rhetoric. But have they? Really?
3. PKR might simply fold back into UMNO, especially if Malays close ranks over the perceived loss of Malay rights. It's happened before ala Semangat 46.
4. Najib will seize this opportunity to dethrone Badawi. If he doesn't move now, he never will. What kind of a PM will Najib be? Past events of the last few years are not encouraging. Badawi at least, was benign.
5. Racial tensions are not only possible, but maybe even probable. Some people pre-election already threatened bloodshed if the opposition won. Now post-election... ain't they losing face the longer they do nothing?
6. What kind of a state government will DAP and PKR be? They've never ruled anything larger than city councils (and not even that for the PKR).
7. What happens to the pre-election northern development plans? Will the BN government now withhold funds? Can they even afford to at the risk of the economy?
8. How long will the honeymoon last? We know DAP and PAS cannot and will not work together or risk alienating their own respective electorates. PKR remains the bridge here.
9. The PKR. From ZERO to Leader of the Opposition? Granted, they have Anwar's experience to draw on but can they and will they lead the opposition well enough to make full use of this unprecedented turn of events? The Malaysian electorate is watching. They've swung their votes before. Just ask Badawi when he's not taking a nap.
10. BN has lost their sacred cow. Can a government who has never operated without a 2/3 majority before in their entire history, now even know how to govern? Can the built up arrogance now even be toned down in what will be very interesting debates in Parliament?
I think the scale of change in this elections has not only caught the BN with their pants down, its also caught the Opposition unprepared. PAS might have been ready to rule 2 states but 3? DAP while obviously readied themselves for Penang was unprepared for Selangor and Perak. The PKR seemed to pick up where the two established opposition parties PAS and DAP failed but I doubt they could have even imagined in their wildest wettest dreams that they would be forming governments in 3 states (including the CM of the richest state in the country)! Will they know what to do with their 1/3 of parliament, or will we see a hung government, blocked at every juncture by an immature opposition?
That was truly creepy. >.<
ReplyDeleteHere's the true shocker. This will be interesting to watch.
ReplyDelete"Opposition plans to drop NEP in Selangor" - Bloomberg, AP
PKR is the only party capable of doing this. If the DAP spearheaded this, there would probably be blood on the streets. If PAS spearheaded his, PAS will lose voters in droves even in strongholds like Kelantan. The PKR's secretary-general, new Selangor Mentri Besar (Chief Minister) Tan Sri Abdul Khalid Ibrahim has come out to say that;
"Selangor, home to Kuala Lumpur and the country's largest port, wil not impose the 37-year-old rules that give Malays preferences in housing, education and jobs".
Dare we hope?
i hope it happens
ReplyDeletethe NEP shud have it's neck broken
I sincerely hope PKR isn't just saying this as a publicity stunt only to let the issue die later. Its certainly a step in the right direction, but I'm really not sure that it would happen. I suspect, the Malay voters who voted PKR would not have cast their vote for PKR if they knew this was going to happen. The reaction from Malays whenever their Special Rights are even mentioned has always been one of outrage and overprotectiveness.
ReplyDeletesome Malays are intelligent enough to stand on their own feet... .not all Malays waiting for money and opportunity to fall out of sky... .
ReplyDeleteI agree but they unfortunately don't form the vocal majority (or minority?).
ReplyDeletetrue... .
ReplyDeletea great country brought to it's knees by uneducated, lethargic muppets... .
ReplyDeletethank god for the ones who stood up!
We'll have to watch to see where this takes us. Malaysia is in uncharted waters now and for the better if you asked me.
ReplyDeletePersonally, I think there is something seriously wrong with a ruling government when the generally more educated (and by extension more informed) urban population centres vote for the opposition.
Just my opinion, but the Opposition should rally behind PM Badawi now and come out strongly (and if that is not possible, to work behind the scenes) to keep him in power. Replacing the one man who helped create this opportunity for change in the country for someone who can slam the door shut again would be foolish. Malaysians need to see that this current state of affairs can work and that having a significant opposition is GOOD for the country... and for that to happen, we need time. If Badawi goes, a stronger man at the helm may see the opposition's chance to shine stillborn in its infancy before they can find their feet, and a return to the bad old days of 2/3 majority single "party" rule.
ReplyDeleteWhat also needs to be done is to finally rebalance and put to rest the over zealous corrective policies (like the NEP) that were set in place by Razak post-1969. Pre-1969 saw an energetic opposition capable of checks and balances in parliament. I'm hoping that we are seeing a return to that.
What we don't need is another Gerakan-style deal with the then Alliance which gave birth to BN, to create yet another monster single party dominance for the next 40 years.
What we also don't want to see is any further erosion of BN power. If Anwar is successful in wooing BN component parties (especially from East Malaysia) to leave BN and join the opposition, the opposition may gain enough seats to form a simple majority government and replace the BN. That is not desirable. The opposition is not ready to take the reins of federal government, nor do we yet trust either Anwar or PAS with that kind of power.
Some numbers on the popular vote.
ReplyDeleteTotal number of votes cast - 7.9milion
In 2004, BN secured 91% of the parliamentary seats with only 64% of the popular vote.
In 2008, BN secured 63% of the parliamentary seats with only 51% of the popular vote.
Malay votes dropped from 63% in 2004 to 58% for the BN.
Chinese votes dropped from 65% in 2004 to 35% for the BN.
Indian votes dropped from 82% in 2004 to 47% for the BN.
interesting reading... .
ReplyDeleteand I agree about supporting Badawi, this country doesnt need Najib at the helm... .
ReplyDeleteI've been very impressed with the DAP's restraint and level headedness these past few days. Their latest decisions and actions have been well reasoned and prudent. Good promise for the future. Their appeal for calm and no victory parades for example, or the willingness to concede the Perak CM post to PAS, or this recent message by Lim Kit Siang to the party leadership not to gloat and to walk the talk so to speak.
ReplyDeleteThis is what he had to say at a recent press conference; “If the rakyat can decisively reject BN in this election, they can decisively reject the DAP in the next election for not ensuring a clean, efficient, people-oriented, progressive government.” Not bad. Not bad at all.
On the other hand, this is what the MCA is saying....
“The party should not hide behind the excuse that the losses were due to winds of change,”
“If you study the results, you would find that many of the candidates lost by a narrow margin. That means the ’wind’ wasn’t that strong.”
“The danger of fielding new candidates is that on top of being inexperienced, they will have big shoes to fill. The people used to the previous MP would have high expectations of the new guy.”
Even Dr. Chua who on the surface seemed to hit the nail on the head with his statement; “..lack of addressing fresh issues (caused the debacle)", still falls flat on his face when he added that the MCA had been "overemphasising Chinese issues".
Jeez... the MCA STILL don't get it.
how long will Ong be around? not long methinks... .
ReplyDeleteMy, my, my and another bites the dust. The Penang state government today announced that they will follow suit and drop the NEP from Penang. That makes two states, Selangor and Penang....
ReplyDeleteTo rehash and quote an old Chinese saying, "May BN live in interesting times."
confirmed?
ReplyDeletethe devil will be in the implementation... the radical Malay response bears watching.
ReplyDeleteTaking away the entrenched rights and benefits for a privileged segment of society is never easy. What one needs to consider is what will take its place? The NEP was created to address poverty and redress the distribution of wealth across racial boundaries. Its replacement must visibly do significantly better if protest voices are to be quelled and ultimately silenced.
What is heartening is that a psychological barrier in people's minds has finally been breached. This of course all hinges on the opposition held states and parliamentary block doing a good job. If normalcy returns to Malaysia and things go back to business as usual with investor confidence restored and the economy begins to boom from good governance, people will start to realise that they really had this choice in their hands (and votes) all along and they needn't have feared change.
ReplyDeleteThere are many people who fear the unknown and continue to vote the ruling party to maintain the status quo because of this. My wife and I have already had many political discussions with a few pro-BN supporters here and the things they are saying sometimes makes one wonder if its possible for intelligent minds to be so closed. What they have to say only illustrates this deep rooted fear in people of change. Some are even angry that the opposition won, only seeing and expecting doom and gloom from now on.
"Malaysia will now go into recession and the economy will fall."
"The government will now not give money to the opposition states and everyone will suffer!"
"Look at the stock market crash! That's why we cannot vote the opposition!"
"Islamic law is now coming to all opposition states! Women will have to cover up and all entertainment places will be closed down!"
"This is the end of the development in Penang. The opposition will shut down all government projects and even what is left will only be to line their own pockets."
"The opposition cannot rule. They are hopeless at ruling. How can they rule a state?"
the sky is falling, the sky is falling.... .
ReplyDeletealways be wary of the loudest most high-pitched voices... .
hahaha I almost fell off my chair laughing whilst trying to imaging you saying "the sky is falling, the sky is falling" in a squeaky high pitched voice.
ReplyDeletei love the old chestnut about the opposition being a "marriage of convenience"... .
ReplyDeletewasn't Barisan a "marriage of convenience" for how many years?
The STAR yesterday reported that the DAP is boycotting the swearing in ceremony of the Perak MB because he is from PAS. Strange. I thought that was the original agreement even before the Sultan stepped in. There is also mention in the same article that PAS is against DAP's actions to remove the NEP. Again, strange. I've been reading reports and articles from other sources to the contrary. PAS is instead saying that they support the initiative. Who is right? Frankly, I don't trust anything published in the STAR.
ReplyDeleteLJM,star is owned by MCA unlike the Sun ,plus it pro MCA ,for truth news watch CNN,BBC,Reuter and Singapore straits times ,ok.
ReplyDeleteApparently the report on the boycott is true. Lim KS called for it. Thankfully he was ignored by the other party members. Lim KS needs to learn that he is no longer the opposition in these state governments, and to act accordingly. He cannot continue to be his usual fiery reactive self and needs to learn how to be calm and collect, exactly how a government leader is expected to be. All teething problems IMO for a new untried opposition coalition government but I sincerely hope they learn fast because it is stuff like this that sways voters and this only gives BN ammunition to declare the DAP unfit to rule.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.malaysiakini.com
ReplyDeleteor http://www.bbc.co.uk
for news
I'm not defending Lim KS. He should have been a more astute politician than that, but I think people need to realise that the Opposition was caught with their pants down almost as much as BN was. DAP obviously never expected to form the government in Perak which is why they didn't have any Malay candidates even fielded for election anywhere let alone in Perak. They are still reeling from the heady win and the reality of things hasn't sunk in yet either. They seriously need to recast their whole party strategy from being a noisy opposition party with little responsibility save to challenge the status quo, to one where they have responsibilities towards the people at the state government level.
ReplyDeleteLike someone on Malaysia today wrote, "While BN recovers from their Shock, the Opposition needs to recover from their Shiok."
true
ReplyDelete"Datuk Seri Nazri, an Umno Supreme Council member, said it appeared that the Malays, especially those in urban areas, had become more confident and felt they could compete with the other races on a level playing field. 'The Malays are saying 'you can't scare us by talking about us losing our rights, because we are here on our own merit',' he said."
ReplyDeleteAWESOME 1st UMNO supremo to question the NEP and this coming just 1 day after UMNO condemned the Opposition's attempts to dismantle it.
saw graffiti on way to Bangsar:
ReplyDeletespraypainted in BOLD BLACK on wall
"A B U. ...ANYBODY BUT UMNO"
ABU!
ReplyDelete